Turkey’s Inflation Stays Below 10% as Slowdown Meets Forecasts

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Turkish inflation slowed in line with forecasts, staying in single digits in October as it capped a turnaround from a currency crash in 2018.

Consumer prices grew 8.6% from a year earlier, compared with an increase of 9.3% in September, Turkstat said on Monday. The median of 19 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey was 8.6%. Prices rose 2% in the month.

Key Insights

Food inflation slipped to 7.9% from 9.5% the previous month. It remains below the central bank’s year-end forecast of 10%A core index that strips out the impact of volatile items such as food and energy dropped to 6.7%, showing some improvement in the underlying price dynamics; producer price inflation slowed to 1.7% from 2.5%The drop in inflation was driven mainly by the statistical effect of a high base last year; the headline figure rose to 25.2% in October 2018 after a currency crisisThe slowdown brings Turkey’s real rate to 5.4%, still one of the highest among its emerging-market peers


The lira was little changed after the data and was trading 0.4% stronger at 5.6926 versus the dollar at 10:03 a.m. in Istanbul

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Read more on the central bank’s inflation expectations hereTurkish central bank’s next rates decision meeting is scheduled for Dec. 12



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